Hobbs Leads Biggs by Eight in New Arizona AARP Poll

A new AARP-commissioned poll gives Democratic Gov. Katie Hobbs an eight-point lead over Republican challenger Andy Biggs while revealing a striking age divide that could shape Arizona’s general election. Hobbs leads Biggs 52% to 44% among likely voters, but Biggs holds a nine-point advantage among voters 50 and older—the group most likely to cast ballots in November.

Biggs leads voters 50-plus 53% to 44%, while Hobbs leads voters under 50 by 36 points. Among voters ages 18–34, her advantage reaches 54 points. Hobbs also leads independent voters by 26 points.

The bipartisan polling team of Fabrizio Ward and Impact Research interviewed 913 likely Arizona voters July 26–28, shortly after the July 21 primary. Interviews were conducted by cellphone, landline and text-to-web. The statewide margin of sampling error is plus or minus 3.2 percentage points. The poll predates the Biggs–Sine Kerr ticket announcement and reports that Hobbs intends to select John Giles as her lieutenant governor running mate.

Older voters, the poll found, are far more likely to participate in the general election. Eighty-five percent of respondents 50 and older rated their motivation to vote a 10 on a 10-point scale, compared with 65% of voters under 50. Voters 50-plus constituted 64% of Arizona’s electorate in the 2022 midterms, and the pollsters project they could represent about 62% this year. The central tension: Hobbs has the larger coalition on paper, while Biggs performs best with the portion of the electorate most certain to vote.

The Democratic advantage extends beyond the gubernatorial contest. Attorney General Kris Mayes leads Republican Senate President Warren Petersen 48% to 43% overall. Petersen, however, leads Mayes by ten points among voters 50-plus. Democrats also hold a narrower 49%–46% advantage on the generic legislative ballot. Clearly, this points to a broader Democratic edge, and Republicans are going to have to maximize turnout among their aging base.

Affordability and retirement security dominate as important issues among older voters. Social Security, grocery and gasoline prices, health-care costs and utility rates rank among their leading concerns. AARP found strong support among voters 50-plus for requiring the Corporation Commission to consider consumer affordability when setting utility rates.

The poll shows a significant lead for the incumbent, but doesn’t indicate a blowout in November. Hobbs begins the general election with a measurable advantage. But Biggs’s strength among Arizona’s most dependable voters gives Republicans a plausible route to narrowing it.