Poll: Arizona Voters Back Conservative Ballot Measures—But Not Republican Candidates

A new election poll from Arizona State University’s Center for Latinos and American Politics Research shows Gov. Katie Hobbs crushing her Republican challenger, Rep. Andy Biggs, by 13 points in the November election.

The survey, conducted Aug. 18 through Sept. 4, includes a substantial Latino oversample, with 700 Latino voters among its 1,300 respondents. The overall sample hardly looks like a collection of left-wing activists: respondents identify as 36% Republican, 31% Democrat and 30% something else, while ideologically they break 37% conservative to 24% liberal.

Still, Hobbs leads Biggs 47-34%. Among Latino voters, the gap is enormous: Hobbs leads 57-20%.

Other major statewide Democratic candidates face much closer races. Secretary of State Adrian Fontes holds a 39-35% lead over Republican Alex Kolodin, while Attorney General Kris Mayes maintains a 42-36% advantage over Arizona Senate President Warren Petersen. Republican Kimberly Yee is the only GOP statewide candidate with a poll lead, edging Democrat Teresa Leyba Ruiz 35-34% for superintendent of public instruction.

But the results aren’t necessarily evidence of a massive blue wave or a broadly liberalizing Arizona electorate.

Several conservative ballot measures enjoy overwhelming support in the same survey. One version of the question on Prop. 314, Arizona’s border-enforcement measure, draws 59% support against 23% opposition; another version draws 60% support and 29% opposition. Prop. 144, which would impose stricter voter-ID and citizenship requirements, leads 66-19%. Prop. 318, restricting school restrooms, locker rooms and athletic teams by biological sex, is favored 63-21%. And Prop. 142, which would prohibit race- or ethnicity-based preferential treatment in public employment, education and contracting, leads 69-15%.

Not surprisingly, a proposal restricting new traffic-camera systems also leads, 56-27%.

So the striking feature of this poll isn’t simply that Democrats lead several statewide races. It’s that the same electorate giving Hobbs a double-digit advantage is also backing a series of conservative ballot initiatives by huge margins.

That suggests Arizona’s voters continue to distinguish sharply between candidates, parties and individual issues rather than voting as one ideological bloc. Biggs is 13 points behind in this survey, while the races for secretary of state and attorney general remain considerably closer and the superintendent race is essentially tied.

There’s also reason for caution before treating the exact margins as predictive. This same ASU polling project showed Kamala Harris with a double-digit lead over Donald Trump at roughly the same stage of the 2024 campaign. Trump ultimately carried Arizona. The current poll is a new survey in a different election cycle, but the 2024 miss is worth keeping in mind when interpreting just how large these Democratic advantages really are.

For now, the clearest picture isn’t of an Arizona electorate moving uniformly left or right, but of one that remains sharply divided— and perfectly willing to support conservative policies while rejecting some Republican candidates.