AZ Legislature’s Blue Roll Fizzles Under a Red Wave

For the first time in many decades, Democrats believed they had a solid chance to flip control of both chambers in the Arizona legislature. Politico reported that Democrats were riding high on record-breaking fundraising, strategic candidate recruitment, and the issue of abortion, which they hope to leverage to reshape Arizona’s political landscape. With Republicans holding just a one-seat majority in both the House and Senate, Democrats were eyeing Arizona as a potential “blueprint” for how they could build state-level power nationwide.

ARIZONA DEMOCRATS ARE GOING TO FLIP THE LEGISLATURE IN 2024, SO @GovernorHobbs CAN PUT DOWN HER VETO STAMP. pic.twitter.com/oy6irqMgUT

— Arizona Democratic Party (@azdemparty) September 21, 2023

While races are still incomplete as of Sunday night, some races initially billed as “close” are in the safe zone. The legislature will not flip blue, meaning that Hobbs will not put down her veto stamp.

LD2 Senate:
The race will likely go to Senator Shawnna Bolick, who holds a solid lead over challenger Judy Schwiebert. In addition, her husband, Arizona Supreme Court Justice Clint Bolick, is also set to be retained despite facing significant retention challenges.

🙌🏻 Meet the Bolicks. 🙌🏻

Thank you, Arizona! ❤️ pic.twitter.com/yc6H8hPqEx

— Shawnna LM Bolick (@ShawnnaLMBolick) November 9, 2024

LD2 House:
This race in Arizona has been notably competitive, with Democrat Stephanie Simacek, a Peoria Unified School board member, maintaining a narrow lead over Republican incumbent Rep. Justin Wilmeth and newcomer Ari Daniel Bradshaw. This race remains too close to call, with the final ballot counting in Maricopa County likely to decide the contest.

LD4 Senate:
Republican Carine Werner flipped the previously reliably blue LD4 seat despite facing $658,645 in independent expenditures for incumbent Democrat Christine Marsh.

Well, this Norwegian-now-American SPEAKS TRUTH.

Meet your new Arizona senator @CarineWerner from Scottsdale, who did not know a lick of English at age 11 when she immigrated from Norway to the United States.

Hard-working patriot. Intelligent FIGHTER & Scottsdale School Board… https://t.co/UHggXwMgVI pic.twitter.com/MSmhIFuzyp

— Wendy Rogers (@WendyRogersAZ) November 8, 2024

LD4 House:
Republicans Matt Gress and Pamela Carter will likely secure narrow victories. This district was a highly contested race with significant independent expenditures from both parties. Carter, a popular political activist, surged in later ballot drops, taking second place in this contest. On social media, Karrin Taylor Robson said, “Pundits said Republicans were likely to lose both House seats in LD4. Instead, we are celebrating a huge GOP pickup thanks to Pamela Carter’s impressive victory!” It turns out that using Wonder Woman against her sister didn’t work out for the Dems in LD4.

LD17 House:
As of Sunday night, this Senate race remains too close to call. Republican Vince Leach holds a slight lead over Democrat John McLean. The vote count lead changed multiple times in this race, with just 304 ballots separating the two. The speed with which Pima processes the remaining ballots will likely determine the outcome.

The race in Arizona’s LD17 took a dramatic turn due to a recent error in vote reporting by Pima County. The issue came to light after Kari Lake’s team sent a legal letter to Pima County, requesting clarity on the total number of ballots left to count. Following this, Pima County admitted to a mistake in their reported vote totals on Friday, raising concerns about the accuracy and transparency of the count impacting more than Lake’s race – it also has implications for the tight LD17 Senate race between McLean and Leach.

Lake expressed frustration over the unclear ballot count, tweeting, “We should know what the static number of ballots to count is. Instead, it’s like an accordion.” Outgoing LD17 Senator Justine Wadsack echoed the sentiment, sharply criticizing the Pima County Recorder, stating, “the Pima County Recorder is as crooked as the day is long.” With the tight margin and the count in question, it could be some time before we receive the outcome in LD17.

The Pima County Recorder is as crooked as the day is long.
… and don’t even get me started on the Maricopa County Recorder. https://t.co/zwKj8sm3H2

— AZ Senator Justine Wadsack (@Wadsack4Arizona) November 10, 2024

Maricopa County Races:
We previously highlighted the only public polling available for Maricopa County races. On September 3, 2024, Noble Predictive Insights released its survey of 1,003 registered voters, including 595 from Maricopa County, providing the first public look at these high-stakes contests. The poll revealed close races with no clear frontrunners and independent voters tilting toward Democratic candidates. The poll, and the lack of other polls, increased political tension as Election Day loomed. Many Republicans were skeptical, given anecdotal conditions on the ground. In hindsight, it appears they were right to discount this poll.

To the dismay of voters and pols alike, ballot counting is still underway six days after the election. However, contrary to many in the media and the Democrat party, the numbers show Republicans leading across Maricopa County races. Rachel Mitchell is up by 9 points, Justin Heap by 5, Boggs by 4, and Sheridan by 8. It’s shaping up to be a Republican sweep in Maricopa County.