Here we go again. A few weeks ago, the Arizona Globe had a nice miniscoop regarding the favorability among Republicans in Maricopa County for Kari Lake and Abraham Hamadeh. The poll was from this past summer — July 2023, to be precise – but some on Twitter developed the idea that it was actually from last summer, as in 2022.
That was incorrect, and some who hold themselves accountable had the integrity to delete their tweets. But for a site that was only three weeks old at that point, it caused those who follow this stuff very closely to smirk at what they alleged was our mistake. It wasn’t, and we can take it.
And now we’ve been leaked another somewhat interesting piece of data.
In American politics, it’s almost always about the economy. And yet, in a leaked poll of 300 Arizona respondents, who appear to be primary voting Republicans — we were not leaked the entire poll, so we do not have the crosstabs, or some of the other data — these respondents had other issues on their mind.
The number one issue that voters believed “should be the top priority” for elected officials was “Border security” with a whopping 35.7%. If that holds through the general election, it’ll make it tough for Democrats running for federal office in Arizona, including President Biden, the eventual Democratic nominee for US Senate, and all Democratic candidates for the House of Representatives.
The number two issue is “Election integrity” with a third of respondents citing that as the top priority. Then crime at 11.8%. Obviously, a poll of Republicans is going to showcase Republican issues. But it is unusual even among partisan polling for such Republican-dominated issues as border, ballots and crime to outpace the economic cluster.
“Jobs in the economy” is in fourth place at a mere 8.8%, followed by “Taxes and spending” at 6%.
The Arizona Globe will be keeping a close eye on public and private polling as races across the state take shape over the next year. This question from one poll is a snapshot not a film. But it’s meaningful nonetheless — Republicans perceived strong in those areas will win their primaries and have a decent shot in November.
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