CLOSING the GAP: Kari Lake Surges Despite Financial Disadvantage

Arizona’s political landscape erupted when, with just seven days until the election, Data Orbital released their Arizona Poll showing Kari Lake surging ahead of Ruben Gallego. For months, Lake’s team claimed that the race was close.

Responding to the polling, Lake said, “Arizona’s Senate race is a dead heat.”

BREAKING: New #AZSen Poll Shows Kari Lake Leading Ruben Gallego

🔴- Kari Lake – 45.2%
🔵- Ruben Gallego – 44.5%
🟢- Eduardo Quintana – 1.6% pic.twitter.com/XGltxvkqD3

— Kari Lake (@KariLake) October 29, 2024

The Senate race in Arizona is tight. According to the poll, Republican Kari Lake has a slight lead over Democrat Ruben Gallego, with 45.2% to his 44.5%, while Green Party candidate Eduardo Quintana received 1.6%. With 8.6% undecided, Khalaf noted that Lake has made gains, bringing the race within a point, adding, “It all comes down to the final turnout when voting ends at 7:00 PM on November 5th.”

Pollster George Khalaf, who owns Data Orbital, joined Garrett Lewis on The Afternoon Addiction, where he discussed the firm’s recent poll results, aligning with Atlas Intel findings, which show Gallego with a narrow lead of just 0.5%. Khalaf highlighted that if Republicans maintain their strong early voting turnout, this momentum could offset any isolated support for the strange “Trump/Gallego voter” that might otherwise impact the outcome. He added that robust early voting gives Kari Lake a strategic advantage by potentially neutralizing any last-minute shifts or outliers.

With only one week left until Election Day, Republicans are showing a strong early voting turnout in Arizona, with 658,846 ballots returned compared to the Democrats’ 541,285—a significant 117,561-ballot lead for the GOP. Analysts attribute this surge to an influx of lower-propensity voters casting their ballots early, a factor expected to bolster Republican momentum.

Lake and Senator Tom Cotton also appeared in the studio on The Afternoon Addiction. Cotton underscored Arizona’s importance on the national stage, framing the state as a “critical battleground for advancing a conservative agenda” with potential wins for both Trump and Kari Lake. Lake echoed Cotton’s sentiment, dismissing polling data that had her significantly down as inaccurate due to the “excitement” she senses among voters. Despite signs of a lead, Lake emphasized, “we are still running like we’re 10 points behind,” signaling her commitment to an all-out effort until the polls close.

The Lake campaign believes they have closed Gallego’s lead and now own the momentum.

On October 22, AZCentral declared, “New poll shows exactly why Kari Lake cannot win,” portraying Lake as out of contention. However, recent polling data from The Hill indicates Gallego’s lead has shrunk to just 5.6 points, with analysts forecasting a tight race where leads are traded within the margin of error. Despite radio ads suggesting “Gallego all but has the race won,” Fox 10 Phoenix acknowledges Lake’s momentum, reporting that she’s within striking distance with strong Republican support (81%) as she heads into the final week, even while significantly outspent.

As of October 16, Ruben Gallego has raised $56 million for his campaign, compared to Kari Lake’s $21 million. Gallego has benefited from $24 million in outside support, while $20 million has been spent against him. In contrast, Lake has received only $1 million in outside support, with a substantial $27 million spent opposing her, according to OpenSecrets.

Lake Senior Advisor Caroline Wren said, “It’s a shame Senate Leadership Fund and Mitch McConnell wouldn’t put one penny into the #AZSen race even though they knew it was very winnable. Kari Lake is going to win this race despite being outspent 10:1!”

The poll, conducted from October 26-28 with “live calls and text-to-web methods,” also shows former President Donald Trump leading Vice President Kamala Harris by 49.7% to 41.9%. Green Party candidate Jill Stein received 1%, and Libertarian Chase Oliver garnered 0.7%, with 6.8% undecided.

Khalaf remarked that Trump “looks to be in a commanding position to win Arizona” as early voting progresses.