Tight Polls Show AZ’s ‘California Jungle-Primary’ Prop Losing

Arizona’s Free Enterprise Club (AFEC), a right-leaning economic policy think tank, has been at the forefront of the fight against Prop 140, entitled the “Make Elections Fair Act,” but disparagingly referred to as the “Make Elections Un-Fair Act,” act. AFEC alleges that if the proposition succeeds, it will import a California-style election system where, instead of choosing between the top candidates from each registered party, voters “rank” candidates in order of preference.

Proponents claim that it provides greater choice to voters, allowing them to vote for anyone they want and to rank them based on preference. Those opposing claim that it heavily favors incumbents and that it goes against our principles of representative government. They point to California, where the ranked-choice voting has allowed one-party rule to “destroy” the state.

However, AFEC points to a recent Data Orbital poll indicating Prop 140 will not meet the 50% threshold needed to pass.

“This latest poll demonstrates that Arizonans do not appreciate these special interests attempting to commandeer our elections for their radical agenda,” said AFEC President Scot Mussi. “Arizona voters are diligently doing their research on Prop 140, and they are being turned off by its dangerous effects on our state’s elections and future. We are hopeful this measure will go down in flames on Election Night next week, sending a message to these out-of-state billionaires and California liberals that Arizonans want free, fair, and transparent elections – not a system run by a partisan election official and his band of unelected bureaucrats.”

The poll shows support for the proposition at 42.2%, well below the passage requirements. When considering only those who’ve already voted, support drops to 38.4% (see the toplines and the crosstabs).

Last week, when Highground, Inc., the organization behind Proposition 140, released the results of their commissioned poll, they only reported on the poll’s Presidential and Senate race results. They omitted the Prop 140 results, as even their internal polling does not show sufficient support for the measure.

If passed, The Make Elections Fair Act would:

• Allow the Arizona Secretary of State to set the number of candidates allowed on the ballot, including their own election
• Limit candidates for any given race to one political party (all Democrat or all Republican)
• Allow two different voting systems on the same ballot, with some races requiring ranked choice while others use the traditional one-per-party system
• Increase tabulation errors
• Creates longer wait times at the polls
• Delay election results

Opponents point to California’s one-party rule as their main argument against Prop 140. Whether Arizona voters will support the measure or send it down in flames remains unclear. Time will tell.