AZ ELECTION UPDATE: Close Contests and Big Money

On September 3, Noble Predictive Insights sent shockwaves through Maricopa County with a poll surveying 1,003 registered voters, including 595 from Maricopa County. It presented the only publicly available insight into these high-stakes local races, showing tight contests with no clear frontrunners. Independent voters appear to lean Democratic in several races, adding tension as Election Day draws closer. Many Republicans remain skeptical of the results, especially without additional polls for comparison.

As campaigns near the finish line, the total fundraising amounts for each candidate—listed beside their names below—provide another angle on each candidate’s support and momentum. Fundraising totals are accurate as of last week and subject to update based on FEC publishing.

Maricopa County Attorney

According to the poll, “In the Maricopa County Attorney race, Republican Rachel Mitchell holds a slim 2-point lead over Democrat Tamika Wooten, 37% to 35%. Wooten benefits from a 10-point lead among Independents as well as 8% support from Republicans compared to Mitchell’s 3% support from Democrats.”

The two contenders faced off in a PBS debate.

Incumbent Rachel Mitchell, who has held the role for two years, has dedicated three decades to prosecution, particularly in cases involving child abuse and sex crimes. Mitchell had a nasty primary against Gina Godbehere. Still, Republicans are largely rallying around her in the general election despite continued intraparty drama between Mitchell and MAGA Republicans.

Tamika Wooten’s 34 years in law span work as a prosecutor, defense attorney, and judge, providing her with a multifaceted view of the legal system. She stated, “The biggest challenge facing the Maricopa County’s Office is politicization. The current county attorney has demonstrated that she makes decisions for political reasons rather than seeking true justice.”

Fundraising:

– Rachel Mitchell (R) $289,784.00
– Tamika Wooten (D) $105,271.00

Maricopa County Recorder

The Maricopa County Recorder race showed Democrat Tim Stringham led Republican Justin Heap by 4 points (38% to 34%). The poll stated, “both candidates have similar shares of support from their own parties as well as equal shares of support from across the aisle. Once again, Independents are breaking for the Democratic candidate 35% to 20%.”

The candidates did not debate, but they both interviewed with Mike Broomhead.

Attorney Tim Stringham is a veteran and a first-time political candidate. The Arizona Globe’s prior interview of him can be found here. Stringham confirmed to the Arizona Globe that he was once a McCain Republican before shifting to the Democratic Party. “I am not overly partisan,” he explained, adding that he believes most people share a similar mindset. While acknowledging that Arizona is “still a Republican state,” Stringham was candid about his decision to stay in the race. He revealed that if incumbent Stephen Richer had won the Republican primary, he would have stepped aside. Stringham stressed the importance of honesty when seeking donations, stating that because Justin Heap won the primary, he “knows he will win.”

Heap is a current state representative who said, “Election integrity has become the civil rights issue of our time.” Heap has largely avoided interviews and did not debate Stringham.  Heap has spoken at Trump-Vance rallies and legislative District meetings, but he has not been accessible to the press. While critics claim his aversion to the press is a mistake, it may be his saving grace if he has had enough direct exposure to the public.

Fundraising:

– Tim Stringham (D) $708,878
– Justin Heap (R) $394,478

Maricopa County School Superintendent

Initially, the race between Shelli Boggs and Laura Metcalfe for Maricopa County School Superintendent seemed amicable. Both candidates, who currently serve on the governing board of the East Valley Institute of Technology, told AZCentral they work well together. Boggs previously stated they wouldn’t engage in the typical mudslinging seen in typical political campaigns. However, this cooperative tone has taken a sharp turn. What started as a friendly race is now one of the county’s most contentious, marked by negative campaign signs, a dedicated website criticizing the opposition, and near-daily negative social media posts and political mailers.

Pundits say that while each will mobilize their respective bases, the winner will ultimately be the one who attracts independents.

Fundraising:

– Laura Metcalfe (D) $136,938.00
– Shelli Boggs (R) $132,494.00

Maricopa County Sheriff

The Maricopa County sheriff’s race between Republican Jerry Sheridan and Democrat Tyler Kamp focuses on federal oversight of the Sheriff’s office. Sheridan, who served under Joe Arpaio, argues that the office needs to end federal monitorship and return to what he describes as effective, independent law enforcement. Kamp, however, supports the reforms started under Sheriff Paul Penzone, emphasizing collaboration and oversight to prevent issues that led to federal intervention, such as racial profiling accusations. Sheridan’s supporters believe he can lead the department out of federal oversight.

The two squared off in two debates: Clean Elections and PBS.

Fundraising:

– Jerry Sheridan (R) $669,034.34
– Tyler Kamp (D) $80,364.00

Additional race information will be posted as it becomes available.