Last week, the Goldwater Institute released a letter demanding that the Hobbs Administration end its arbitrary water restriction, which has all but stopped home construction in parts of Maricopa County. The letter addresses the new water rules, which amend the original 100-year water supply requirement for builders by redefining the terms by which builders can measure the 100 years. Under the new regulations, the state can generalize water shortages from any area in the county to impact any other area within that county if the state deems such water resources have a low water table.

The new rules allow the state to arbitrarily halt and block new home construction in any area of the county, most notably the high-growth regions of Buckeye and Queen Creek. These two areas, in particular, are in high demand for new home construction as the land is less costly, making homes built in these areas more affordable. Coupled with the increasing demand for new homes across the state, particularly in Maricopa County, this rule change could prove detrimental to potential homeowners and builders alike. The net result is likely to be a shortage of homes, driving up construction costs, and increasingly unaffordable housing.

According to the Goldwater Institute, the new water model  builds on what it describes as a “flawed concept” that considers “unmet demand.” In a nutshell, if a designated heavy-demand area of water use receives a shortfall projection, the state can designate all areas in the region to be at risk. In addition, the model relies on hypothetical models of wells arbitrarily placed throughout the region without regard to their actual use. This means that if a well were built “somewhere” in the region, and that hypothetical well’s groundwater model indicates less than 100 years of supply, the state can declare a potential water shortage. It would allow the state to block housing development in any part of the region, even if the projected well doesn’t provide water for such development and the fact that the groundwater model itself is artificial.

While devastating to the region’s long-term growth and possible survival, the ruling is equally destructive to the legislative process. It allows unelected cabinet members to set State water policy without following established rulemaking processes. Goldwater called on Gov. Hobbs to cease enforcement of the new water rules while concurrently insisting that the State Legislature assert its statutory authority to overturn the new program.

It’s unclear whether the Legislature has had the time to review the groundwater ruling yet. The Arizona Globe will continue to monitor and report on the situation.