Will Big Spending Flip the Arizona Legislature?

With election day upon us, Arizonans are in nail-biting mode, awaiting an indication of whether the razor-edge-thin Republican majority in the Arizona Legislature will hold. With just a one-seat Republican majority in the State House and Senate, Democrats remain bullish that they can wrestle control of the legislature despite the Republicans maintaining control since 2010.

Legislative District 4 (LD4), covering parts of Phoenix, Paradise Valley, and Scottsdale, has a history of electing both Republican and Democratic candidates, reflecting its “swing” status. In 2022, LD4 voters elected representatives from both parties. Similarly, Legislative District 16 (LD16), spanning south Maricopa County, Pinal County, and Pima County, is considered competitive. The 2022 election saw Democratic Rep. Keith Seaman’s victory, resulting in split representation in the Arizona House and underscoring the district’s competitiveness. Other swing districts, including Legislative Districts 2, 9, 13, and 17, primarily located in Maricopa County, are also crucial battlegrounds. Both parties are heavily focused on these areas, recognizing that outcomes here could influence state legislature control.

We’re also watching LD23, the sleeper race from two years ago. While there aren’t big fundraising numbers to report this time, this district proved pivotal in the last election, with Republicans flipping the seat and using it to gain control of the Arizona House.

Here is a look at the October campaign finance numbers that may give us a glimpse into the possible outcome of today’s Arizona Legislative battle.

LD2 Senate: Shawnna Bolick (R), Judy Schwiebert (D)

Bolick has raised $368,871, with independent expenditures of $540,208 in support and $772,350 against. Like most state Democrats, Schwiebert has significantly outraised her opponent, gathering $554,421, with $565,313 in independent expenditures supporting her and $471,373 spent against her.

Late development: Will Jane Fonda’s visit to Phoenix and her endorsement help boost the Democrats?

We need a Senator, not an activist.
🗣️Tell GI Jane’s gal pal Judy Schwiebert, no way!

Vote Shawnna Bolick 🇺🇸
LD2 #Arizona #MaricopaCounty pic.twitter.com/8lsShko52E

— AZSuburbs 🌵 (@noprezzie2012) November 1, 2024

LD2 House: Justin Wilmeth (R), Ari Bradshaw (R), Stephanie Simacek (D)

Wilmeth raised $108,705 without independent expenditures (IE) for or against him. Since he is the incumbent, the Dems have targeted the newcomer. Bradshaw raised $205,933, with $122,864 in independent expenditures supporting him and $224,128 in opposition. Simacek leads in fundraising with $383,950, with $224,742 in independent expenditures in support and $191,943 against.

The Arizona Republic reported that Bradshaw knocked on Simacek’s door while canvassing and was allegedly told by her husband that they had split up and she “no longer lived there.” This raises the question: does Simacek still reside in the district? The Arizona Globe has been unable to confirm the answer as of yet.

LD4 Senate: Carine Werner (R),  Christine Marsh (D)

Werner has raised $342,586, with independent expenditures (IE) of $353,023 in support and $658,845 against her. Marsh has raised a higher amount of $488,487, with $285,828 in independent expenditures supporting her and $347,367 in opposition.

LD4 House: Matt Gress (R), Pamela Carter (R), Kelli Butler (D), Karen Gresham (D)

Gress has raised $570,749, with independent expenditures (IE) of $477,707 in support and $118,679 against him. Carte had a lower fundraising total of $182,834 and received $111,648 in IE support and $258,900 in opposition. Butler raised $572,780 with $111,648 in IE for and $258,901 against. Gresham leads the fundraising with $580,760, supported by $236,452 in independent expenditures and facing $211,707 in opposition.

Did you know that Pamela Carter’s sister is actress Linda Carter/Wonder Woman? Despite their political differences, liberal Linda Carter did not endorse her sister, but Pamela’s response was classic. “I love my sister even though her politics are very far left, and we disagree on some issues. That doesn’t change how I feel about her,” adding, “Everyone would be well served treating each other better, even when we have disagreements over issues, and I’m happy to try to set an example in that regard,” she told The Arizona Republic.

LD9 Senate: Robert Scantlebury (R), Eva Burch (D)

Scantlebury raised a total of $112,686, with independent expenditures in support amounting to $29,067 and $39,799 spent against him. Burch raised $225,427, with $254,897 in independent expenditures supporting her and $155,855 in opposition.

LD9 House: Lorena Austin (D), Seth Blattman(D), Mary Ann Mendoza (R), Kylie Barber (R)

Austin has raised $306,088, with $254,356 in independent expenditures (IE) supporting her and $27,086 against. Blattman leads with $498,666 raised, with significant IE support of $589,440 and $65,952 in opposition. Mendoza raised $116,598, with $72,649 in IE support, but faces $263,446 against. Barber has raised the lowest amount of $60,058, with $121,770 in IE support and $54,850 in opposition.

As the Arizona Globe previously reported, many of the House candidates were endorsed by a communist group, an endorsement they never disavowed.

LD13 House: Julie Willoughby (R), Jeff Weninger (R), Nicholas Gonzales (D)

Willoughby has raised $151,933, with independent expenditures (IE) of $196,567 supporting her and $213,552 against her. Weninger has raised a similar amount of $153,231, with $281,487 in IE support and $227,763 in opposition. Gonzales leads in fundraising with $228,051, plus $498,516 in independent expenditures for him and $170,852 against him.

LD16 House: Chris Lopez (R), Teresa Martinez (R), Keith Seaman (D)

In the Arizona Legislative District 16 race, candidate Chris Lopez raised $214,032, with Independent Expenditures (IE) supporting him amounting to $303,342 and $202,370 against him. His opponent, Teresa Martinez, has raised $195,914, with $182,839 in IE supporting her and only $23,186 in opposition. Meanwhile, Democrat Keith Seaman raised $100,285 while matching Martinez’s $182,839 in IE support but only $23,186 in opposition.