Registered Republicans and independent voters outnumber Democrats by more than two to one, but Democrats appear poised to retain Arizona’s three top statewide executive offices in the November 3 midterm election.
If the latest polling holds, Katie Hobbs will be reelected governor, Adrian Fontes will secure another term as secretary of state, and Kris Mayes will remain the state’s attorney general for another four years.
Republicans still control both chambers of the Legislature, and Republican Kimberly Yee holds a narrow polling lead in the superintendent of public instruction race. But the prospect of another Democratic victory in Arizona’s three highest-profile executive races is disappointing for Republican voters.
One of the most disappointing potential outcomes centers on the governor’s race.
On October 30, Noble Predictive Insights showed Hobbs with a 6-point lead, receiving 51% support compared to Andy Biggs’ 45%. The poll found that Hobbs held 94% of the Democratic vote, while Biggs held only 85% among Republicans. Hobbs also led among independent voters, 62% to 32%.
These trends raise the possibility that Arizona is moving further into the blue, at least in statewide executive races, despite its Republican registration advantage.
It’s possible the Biggs campaign missed an opportunity to reach Republican voters who were not firmly committed to his candidacy. Near the end of the summer, an email forwarded from the Republican Party of Arizona (AZGOP) to state committeemen explained the campaign’s advertising strategy:
“You are reading this because you support Andy Biggs and Sine Kerr…Your household is a Biggs household and that is exactly why we will not spend a dollar to reach you….You will not see our ads when you watch the news or when you scroll on social media, or surf the internet. It may get to the point that you ask whether this campaign is running any advertising at all. The answer is we are and you are simply not in the target, and that is the point…Every time you do not see one of our ads, the plan is working the way we built it.”
The email explained how the campaign planned to target the “one in three independent voters” who had the power to decide election outcomes.
The strategy may have made sense to campaign officials, who wanted to avoid spending money on voters they considered reliable supporters. But with Biggs polling at just 85% among registered Republicans, it raises questions about whether the campaign correctly identified which voters still needed persuading.
Meanwhile, the Biggs campaign struggled to counter Hobbs’ “No Clue” ad, which accused him of supporting a plan that would raise prices by 23%. Another ad, “Big Tax Biggs”, accused him of wanting to impose a 23% consumption tax on purchases.
The ads referenced Biggs’ longtime support for the federal Fair Tax Act, which proposed replacing federal income taxes with a national consumption tax.
Biggs called the accusations deceptive. As ABC15 News reported, Biggs maintained that the proposal was federal legislation, not part of his platform for governor. He also argued that the federal plan would reduce taxes for most Americans.
Biggs’ separate proposal to gradually eliminate Arizona’s state income tax could have provided a beneficial economic message to voters, including independents. Nevertheless, that message appears to have struggled to break through the controversy surrounding the Hobbs campaign’s tax advertisements.
Campaign spending also favored Hobbs. According to campaign finance records through September 30, the Hobbs campaign spent approximately $17.8 million during the election cycle, compared with $5.3 million for Biggs.
Despite the Biggs campaign’s efforts to win over the middle, the latest polling suggests that independent voters are favoring Democrats in the governor’s race, as well as in the contests for secretary of state and attorney general.
If those trends hold on Election Day, Arizona Republicans may have to reconsider not only their messaging but also their strategy for winning statewide elections.