Abortion, Age Top List of AZ Election Drivers

The 2022 “red wave” that many Republicans predicted failed, with abortion access ballot measures topping the list of explanations for the missed expectations. This time around, Republicans maintain guarded optimism that the impact of abortion will not sway this election. Arizona faced just such a risk when the state’s supreme court ruled that an 1800s law prohibiting abortion except in the rarest of circumstances briefly became law. However, lawmakers on both sides of the aisle saw the change as an untenable risk, albeit for very different reasons.

Planned Parenthood of Arizona filed a petition with the court to stay implementing the ruling pending a repeal that Arizona Governor Katie Hobbs promised to sign and did so concurrently with the ban’s timing. The question at the time hinged on Arizona’s 90-day rule, meaning that the repeal, which passed with the help of Republicans Matt Gress (R4), Tim Dunn (R25), and Justin Wilmeth (R2), would not take effect for 90 days after its passage. As it turns out, the repeal was a boon for Republican politics and a net loss for Democrats relative to the 2024 election.

Given the ever-increasing likelihood that Biden will not survive the election due to concerns about his age and mental capability, Democrats sought solace in the form of an abortion ballot initiative that, at least in their eyes, could drive more “reliable” Democrat voters, women, college-aged, blacks, and Hispanics, to come out en masse. However, the repeal, which passed in April 2024, squelched those hopes. However, that has not stopped abortion advocates from trying to “make hay” despite a lack of a clear mandate.

As of July 11, 2024, six ballot initiatives related to abortion have already qualified for the November ballot, including the most controversial, the Arizona Right to Abortion Initiative. The measure would provide the “fundamental right to abortion” as an addendum to the state’s constitution. It would guarantee the right to an abortion up to the point of fetal viability, defined as the point of time when the baby has a significant likelihood of survival outside of the uterus without extraordinary medical measures. Proponents believe that this will help motivate Democrat voters to “get out the vote” in the face of a lackluster candidate in the form of Joe Biden. Detractors state that the law is too vague, increasing the chance of late-term abortions, even after the point of viability.

However, Democrats have filed another suit against the Republican-led legislature, claiming that the language in the voter pamphlet regarding the measure is prejudical because it refers to a fetus as “an unborn human being.” Arizona for Abortion Access filed the lawsuit in Maricopa County Superior Court on Wednesday, July 10, 2024, asking the judge to deny the pamphlet language as “prujudicial.” The summary will appear on the official documentation sent to voters to help them decide how to vote.

Given the initiative’s politically charged nature and the risks that Democrats see in Biden’s continued candidacy, the suit is critical to Democratic election strategy. The group released an official statement clarifying its position.

The statement read, “Arizona voters have a right to clear, accurate, and impartial information from the state before they are asked to vote on ballot initiatives.” The group said, “The decision of the Arizona Legislative Council fails to abide by that responsibility by rejecting the request to use the neutral, medical term ‘fetus’ in place of ‘unborn human being’ in the 2024 General Election Publicity Pamphlet.”

It’s unclear how impactful the ballot language will be or whether having abortion measures on the ballot will outweigh other issues, including the economy, border security, and crime.