Donald Trump, Jr. was in Queen Creek yesterday to headline a rally for his father. His opening acts included State Senator Jake Hoffman and US Reps. Eli Crane and Andy Biggs (R-AZ2 and R-AZ5), who spoke at the rally.
“We’re at a crossroads in this country and if you want to take the right path, you take our path,” Cong. Biggs told the crowd. “That’s the red path from top to bottom, from Donald J Trump to Kari Lake to people like Shelli Boggs,” referring to the Mesa mom who’s running for the Maricopa County Superintendent.
Mention of the name Kari Lake was greeted with an enthusiasm one wouldn’t expect if one got all his information from the Arizona Republic or Mitch McConnell. But there she was, the hardest-working candidate in Arizona, slaying in a purple top and navy blazer and getting it said to the delight of the crowd.
“The problems are vast, but they’re actually pretty easy to solve. How do we solve this big open border? We shut it down, build the wall, go back to the Trump policies that worked.”
The enthusiastic crowd belies a steady drumbeat of “she can’t win” stories from the mainstream media. The day before the rally, the Republic ran a story about a Highground poll showing Lake trailing Ruben Gallego 51.7% to 42.3% and seemed to cheer on this news by saying the 9-point gap confirms “what a bazillion of the last bazillion and two polls have shown us.” Actually, the Real Clear Politics average reports the gap at a more manageable 6.5%, with a couple credible polls putting it at 4% — nearing the margin of error.
But these polls might be missing the same underground, hard-to-poll energy that typically leads professional pollsters to underestimate Trump at the ballot box.
The Globe spoke to Lake after the event and she confirmed the energy on the ground.
“This event was great. We have been drawing massive crowds everywhere we go. This was a Don Junior event but the night before in Yuma we had three events in three different hours and we had massive crowds at all of them. One was just meeting with voters outside the recorder’s office. We expected about 10 people, and I think we had about 50. From there, we went to Lute’s,” continued Lake, referring to Lute’s Casino Bar & Grill in Yuma. “It was standing room only packed, and then we went to the Yuma County Republican meeting and that was standing room only as well.”
So yeah, Lake is working hard, and there’s more.
“After the Don Junior event,” Lake told Arizona Globe, “We went to a private home in Gilbert with 160 people there. Arizona is activated and ready to vote and save our country.”
Unfortunately for the Lake campaign ‑ and possibly for all American conservatives, since the Senate is so closely divided — one Republican who doesn’t share that enthusiasm is Mitch McConnell.
According to Axios, The Senate Leadership Fund (SLF) controlled by the Minority Leader has invested $42 million in late spending to back Senate candidates in battleground states, but has earmarked none of that for Arizona. That’s even as its Democrat equivalent, the Senate Majority PAC, has spent $4.9 million backing Gallego.
It’s not as though savvy outside groups have all given up on Arizona. The well-funded Club for Growth has been supporting Lake with air cover. The group just released a brutal new spot targeting Gallego for unchivalrous treatment of his first wife and concluding “Washington has enough scumbags.”
The Globe asked Lake why McConnell has so far withheld funds and got a characteristically blunt assessment.
“NRSC and Club for Growth have been with me. Mitch McConnell didn’t invest with Ted Cruz either. He doesn’t want people who push back.”
No experienced observer of American politics would claim that a 9-point deficit is easy to overcome. Or even 6-1/2-points. But if what’s going on at campaign appearances in Arizona is any indication, the final tally might just be a lot tighter than it appears.
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