Peña to Face Snyder as GOP Single-Shot Strategy Collapes

A Republican political strategy circulating inside Arizona’s Legislative District 23 appears to have collapsed, after former candidate Gary Garcia Snyder declined to participate in what activists described as a “single-shot” voting strategy. The approach, occasionally discussed in multi-seat legislative primaries, encourages voters to cast a ballot for only one candidate instead of both available seats. By concentrating votes behind a single preferred candidate, supporters believe it can increase the likelihood that the candidate advances while competitors split the remaining vote.

But the strategy requires near-perfect coordination among candidates and their supporters. In LD23, that coordination won’t materialize this year.

Snyder is familiar with the district’s political terrain. He ran for the Arizona Senate in 2022, ultimately losing in the general election. Two years later, he returned to the ballot but lost in the Republican primary in 2024. He has fluctuated between Legislative Districts 23 and 25.

Snyder told the Arizona Globe the following:

“A single-shot strategy has been off the table since May 2025, when a longtime Democrat decided to run as a Republican in House LD 23. When it became clear the party didn’t yet have a solution, I stepped up when others weren’t willing to. I’m not willing to allow a free ride to the general election for someone who spent years as a Democrat Candidate. I’m running to make sure voters have clear choices and to protect this seat for Republicans. The grassroots voters of the district should decide who represents them. As a true Republican, I believe this effort and sacrifice are necessary to defend our district and our state majority.”

Snyder, of course, was talking about James “Jimmy” Holmes, whose past candidacy has raised eyebrows among some Republican activists. Holmes previously ran as a Democrat in the 2024 Democratic primary for the Arizona House in LD23, finishing behind the two candidates who advanced. Holmes openly said that he switched to the Republican Party, hoping to have “better luck.”

Snyder believes, “We will retain the LD23 seat and pick up another within the district. Times are revolving and bold actions are sometimes necessary ”

So, it would appear that the real question is whether Michele Peña can survive Snyder’s challenge.

With the “single-shot” strategy now effectively off the table, attention turns to Republican incumbent Michele Peña, who currently holds one of the district’s House seats. LD23 has proven to be far less predictable than partisan maps might suggest. While many areas of the district lean Republican, Democratic turnout operations in Yuma County have repeatedly made the district competitive, tightening races that might otherwise favor Republicans.

Peña has managed to navigate that environment so far. But the path forward may become more with another Republican on the ballot, say party insiders. If Republicans spend the coming months competing against each other rather than building a unified campaign heading into the general election, Democrats could once again benefit. LD23 could quickly become one of the most closely watched legislative contests in southern Arizona.

One Ally that Peña has is LD25 Representative Nick Kupper, who edged out Snyder in 2024. There is no love lost between the two men who frequently sparred online during their primary campaigns against each other.

Online, Kupper said, “the only real option in that race is incumbent Michele Peña.”

The Arizona Globe asked Kupper if he thought the Republicans could take both seats, to which he replied, “Anything is possible, but mathematically no. Single shot is the best strategy unless the demographics of LD23 change dramatically.”