•NEW POLL: HOBBS LEADS BY THREE BILLION POINTS–A new poll by nonpartisan Arizona firm High Ground indicates the biggest wave to hit Arizona since the closing of Big Surf. Governor Katie Hobbs’ Democratic ticket leads Rep. Andy Biggs by 17 points. Only 70 percent of Republicans support Biggs, and Hobbs leads among independents by 38 points. Even within the nearly five percentage point margin of error, that indicates the Republican ticket is facing an historic rout. This isn’t exactly news, but the down-ballot races, previously considered close, are also leaning heavily Democratic. Attorney General Kris Mayes has a 15-point lead on Senate President Warren Petersen in her re-election bid, and Secretary of State Adrian Fontes is up 12 points on Alex Kolodin. The treasurer and school superintendent races are a bit closer, but still within the margin for error.

In other Governor’s race news, former President Barack Obama endorsed Hobbs on Tuesday, which will certainly move her needle up to 17.2%. The Biggs campaign responded by noting that Obama lost Arizona in both his presidential campaigns and contrasting his endorsement with Biggs’ support from former Republican governors Jan Brewer and Doug Ducey.

•SINEMA IS FEELING FEELY–Axios reported Tuesday that former Sen. Kyrsten Sinema has been privately promoting Republican congressional candidate Jay Feely in conversations with Arizona business and political leaders. She reportedly told associates she voted for Feely in the Republican primary and reckons she’ll support him against Democrat Amish Shah in November. Sinema reportedly considers Feely a fiscal conservative and likes his approach to Arizona’s water problems. The National Republican Congressional Committee issued an October 14 statement embracing the report and describing Sinema’s support as evidence of Feely’s appeal across party lines. Sinema hasn’t issued a formal endorsement but is probably happy to see her name in the news about something other than her disastrous personal life.

•CLEAN ELECTIONS TELLS GREEN CANDIDATES TO TAKE A HIKE–Arizona Clean Elections Executive Director Tom Collins filed a forceful response with the Arizona Supreme Court in the lawsuit brought by Green Party candidates Risa Lombardo and Duwayne Collier. The candidates are trying to prevent the commission from demanding repayment of potentially millions in public campaign funds while their qualifying contributions remain under investigation. Collins argues that their alleged campaign difficulties are the political equivalent of an own-goal and that the candidates can’t accept public financing while avoiding the commission’s enforcement authority. This saga has more turns than a Days of Our Lives plot. An evil twin storyline is next.

•WHERE THERE’S SMOKE–Attorney General Kris Mayes sued the city of Tolleson on Tuesday over a policy requiring newly hired firefighters to repay $15,000 if they leave the department within three years. Mayes calls the arrangement an unlawful employment penalty masquerading as training reimbursement. The lawsuit centers on firefighter Sean Krienke, who left Tolleson for Goodyear in August 2025. According to the complaint, Tolleson withheld $2,473 from his final paycheck and subsequently billed him another $8,776. Mayes is seeking an injunction to stop Tolleson from enforcing the agreements while litigation proceeds. Who’s going to want to fight fires in Tolleson now?

•SUPREME COURT LEAVES KARI LAKE LAWYERS WITH THE BILL–The U.S. Supreme Court declined Tuesday to review $122,000 in sanctions imposed against attorney Andrew Parker and his firm over the unsuccessful 2022 election lawsuit filed on behalf of Kari Lake and Mark Finchem. The attorneys had argued that Arizona’s voting machines presented serious security vulnerabilities and sought to replace electronic tabulation with hand counting. Time to let this one drop.