Early voting has officially begun in Arizona, setting the stage for some of the most closely contested races in recent history. The Arizona State Legislature is Republican-led by a one-vote margin. Democrats need to flip just one seat in each chamber to tie the balance of power and two to gain control. The mantra of the Democratic party on social media is, “Together, we are going to flip Arizona Blue.”

According to Politico, “Democrats believe they finally have the right combination to capture complete statewide control for the first time since the 1960s. With record-breaking fundraising, bolstered candidate recruitment, and the prominence of abortion as a defining issue, the party sees a unique opportunity to reshape Arizona’s political landscape.”

In Arizona’s Legislative District 2 (LD2), Republican Senator Shawnna Bolick and Democratic Representative Judy Schwiebert face off in a high-stakes race. Maricopa County Board of Supervisors appointed Bolick,  the incumbent, to the Senate in 2022 to replace Steve Kaiser following his resignation. She previously served in the Arizona House. She is known for her conservative stances on issues such as school choice and abortion. Schwiebert, a former teacher and State legislator, was drafted by her party to run for the Senate, positioning the swing district as a key battleground.

Bolick made headlines when she voted to repeal the 1864 abortion law that the Arizona Supreme Court recently reinstated. The law, which banned nearly all abortions without exceptions for rape or incest, sparked heated debate across the state. Bolick, a Republican, broke ranks with her party to join Republican Senator TJ Shope and the Democrats, passing the repeal by a narrow 16-14 vote.

This decision was particularly notable given that her husband, Arizona Supreme Court Justice Clint Bolick, was involved in reinstating the ban. Bolick’s vote could have significant implications for her reelection campaign, especially in a swing district. According to political analysts, her stance may resonate with more moderate voters. On the Senate floor, Bolick explained that she voted to “save more babies,” a message that appeals to her conservative base. However, many who initially disagreed with her vote may come to realize that if the progressive Abortion Access Measure fails, it will largely be because Arizona’s current law permits abortion up to 15 weeks rather than reverting to the near-total ban dating to 1864.

Last week, Senator Mark Kelly said on X, “It’s been 837 days since Arizona women lost their right to an abortion because Roe v. Wade was overturned. But on November 5, we have the opportunity to restore those rights and enshrine reproductive freedom in our state constitution by voting YES on Prop 139. Let’s get it done!”

Senator Kelly and other Democrats continue to run on and promote abortion by alleging that the repealed 1864 ban is still the law. Bolick’s controversial vote might actually help preserve the existing 15-week rule, with some voters seeing it as a compromise. Opponents of the ballot measure believe that by keeping some access to abortion while preventing more extreme changes, voters may feel they are striking a balance by rejecting Prop 139.

Schwiebert, a Democrat, is quoted as saying, “I think that politicians too often use abortion as a political football.” However, her frequent posts on X suggest that she regularly discusses the topic. In one such post, she stated, “This fight is far from over – I will continue to fight in the state legislature to ensure access to abortion.” On another occasion, she expressed pride in “speaking out against politicians who seek to ban abortion like Kari Lake and extreme MAGA Republicans,” despite the fact that this is not Lake’s position on the issue. This contrast raises questions about Schwiebert’s consistency on the issue of keeping abortion out of politics while using it as a key part of her campaign rhetoric and her political honesty.

Schweibert’s voting record is consistent with the far-left progressive Democrats. She opposed measures bolstering border security and economic reforms. She voted against bills supporting the U.S. Border Patrol, opposed efforts to restrict driver’s licenses for illegal immigrants, and refused to back legislation empowering local law enforcement on border issues. Economically, she rejected tax relief bills that would have benefited small businesses and families, including opposing the “lemonade stand bill” that would exempt minors from certain taxes.

The AZ Free Press criticized Schweibert’s “leftist” voting record as not reflecting her district’s moderate stance. For example, she co-sponsored HB 2653, limiting disposable straws in restaurants, and HB 2068, repealing the designation of school sports by biological sex. She also opposed SB 1028, restricting “adult cabaret performances” in public spaces, and HB 2591, prohibiting public entities from contracting with companies that use forced or oppressive child labor.

On X, the Arizona Democratic Party declared in all caps, “ARIZONA DEMOCRATS ARE GOING TO FLIP THE LEGISLATURE IN 2024, SO @GovernorHobbs CAN PUT DOWN HER VETO STAMP.” As new campaign finance numbers show, Democrats will likely outspend Republicans by a wide margin. The question remains whether Republicans’ aggressive ballot-chasing strategies and their registration advantage will be enough to hold the line.